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One Seed Weaknesses Part III: Kentucky Wildcats

Posted by Kevin Berger on March 9th, 2010 under Basketball, March Madness

Youth is wasted on the young. So are 40 inch verticals, freakishly explosive crossovers, and $3,000 rims on a Chevy Corsica.

In college basketball, the saying holds true unless you’re the Fab 5, Carmelo Anthony, or never nervous Pervis Ellison. Lately, youth doesn’t seem to be much of concern if you’re coached by the maestro of Freshmen superstardom, John Calipari.

Coach Cal, for all of the grief he gets on the NCAA infractions front, is a helluva basketball coach.

Coach Calipari’s ability to X and O on both ends of the floor is grossly underrated. His teams brimming with potential prima donnas guard like a Ben Howland-coached team. Lou Roe, Marcus Camby, and the UMASS Minutemen hung their hat on great defensive play, as did Coach Cal’s Memphis teams.

This Kentucky Wildcat squad is no different.

On offense, Calipari recognized genius in an offense which is called Dribble Drive Motion, run by an obscure junior college coach from Fresno, CA. Coach Cal took the DDM, tweaked it, and used it with his superstars, turning it into a national championship worthy offense that’s all the rage in college basketball today. With a few more practice free throws, he’s likely hanging a banner.

But more than X’s and O’s, Calipari is a master psychologist. Consider what he’s done with young teams at Memphis led by freshmen point guards Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans, and now a virtuoso performance in his first year at Kentucky with the mercurial John Wall behind the wheel.

The results he’s had at UK this year are astounding.

When you take a collection of All-American Freshmen, two one and done NBA lottery picks, as well as junior forward Patrick Patterson who happens to also be playing for a paycheck, and you get them to buy into a team concept, you’re doing something right. It’s even more impressive when you take the same collection of loosely-affiliated superstars with separate agendas and get them to go 27-2.

Cal has gotten kids like Wall and Cousins to play unselfish basketball, for most of the year anyway, and that’s an accomplishment I’m not sure most coaches coaching today could accomplish.

All of that considered, let’s start with Kentucky’s strengths.

Strengths

You won’t find a more talented club anywhere in America. One through five, the Wildcats are as explosive and athletic a basketball team as there has been this decade. John Wall is the lead guard and he’s likely going to be the number 1 pick in the draft. He does things with the dribble that would make Kenny Anderson blush. He also happens to be a plus shooter with an embarrassment of athletic riches. Forty inch vertical, explosive quickness, and speed.

Inside, Demarcus Cousins is probably the toughest player in the country to matchup with. There isn’t one single post defender in college basketball today that can handle his size and strength one on one without at least some help. Cousins is a surefire lottery pick as well.

If this inside/outside combination weren’t enough already, consider the fact that Kentucky’s supporting cast would start for 99% of the teams in college basketball. Hell, Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Patterson would be number 1 options on virtually every team out there.

Bledsoe is a hot shooting, lightning quick combo guard who gives UK a second creator/playmaker opposite Wall. Junior Patrick Patterson is a seasoned post scorer who’s added a 3-ball to his quiver. With an improved face-up game, Patterson can complement Demarcus Cousins from the high post or from the arc in a four out look if UK really wants to isolate Cousins on the block.

Point blank, the Cats are filthy.

Weaknesses

The main weakness that should be worrying the Wildcats is youth or inexperience as it relates to the Big Dance. It’s already cost UK a game against undermanned South Carolina, and made other games against overmatched opponents closer than they needed to be.

Versus South Carolina, the Wildcats could have won the ballgame if it weren’t for a few ill-advised shots from John Wall and Eric Bledsoe early in the shot clock down the stretch. In that game, the Wildcats would have been better served going to Demarcus Cousins 50 times than hoisting a single perimeter shot. Cousins was that dominant, and a more experienced backcourt would have recognized that fact.

The other weakness the Wildcats have is they lack a consistent perimeter shooting game. Wall is streaky, Bledsoe sometimes has trouble finding his rhythm playing second fiddle to Wall, and Patrick Patterson is a four man that isn’t entirely comfortable playing around the arc.

Finding a consistent long range shooter against sagging man-to-man or zones that will be prevalent in the tournament is a must for UK. The zone busting answer may be Darius Miller, a player who seems to be taking to the role of designated sniper off the bench. His 3 threes against Florida on Sunday probably saved the day for the Cats and his range will come in handy in the tournament.

How to beat Kentucky

Any strategy formulated to upset the Wildcats starts with their weaknesses– inexperience and shooting. Most of what an opponent does should be predicated on taking away the easy, intuitive things that Kentucky likes to do on offense. Take away dunks and foul shots by taking away Cousins and transition buckets. Make the Wildcats run offense, make decisions, and make extra passes. As the game tightens, Wall may become impatient and impetuous.

If you can’t limit dunks and foul shots by limiting Cousins and transition, you’re done anyway.

Your guards must value the basketball and your team has to take good shots to limit transition offense. On defense, you have to use zone, some junk (triangle and two on Wall/Bledsoe), or at least a quick double in the post on Cousins to limit interior offense. You build your gameplan off these two musts.

If you can limit Cousins and transition, then step two includes trying to confuse the Kentucky guards by mixing defenses from possession to possession. Play some zone, then switch to man, mix in some token pressure and halfcourt trap, whatever it takes to get Wall and Bledsoe out of kilter and out of their comfort zone. Switch defenses during a possession if your team is experienced enough.

On a micro level one way to get Wall and Bledsoe to play uncomfortably is to entice midrange jumpers from the UK backcourt because these types of shots are much less effective than rhythm 3′s, dunks, and entry passes to Cousins. It’s a good way to manufacture empty possessions. Duke did this to UNLV in the 1991 upset by enticing George Ackles to shoot open 15 footers.

Given all that, teams that are anything worse than 3 or 4 seeds have only a shooter’s chance to beat this talented Kentucky group. Meaning these lower seeded teams will have to be on fire from long range.

Lower Seeded Teams Built to Pull off the Gameplan

Siena

One team that is built to pull off the huge upset in the second round would be the Siena Saints, likely to seeded as an 8 or a 9. They’re a very experienced team led by pass-first senior point guard Ronald Moore, senior wing Edwin Ubiles, as well as senior forward, the team’s leading scorer, and MAAC conference player of the year Alex Franklin.

The other two starting spots are filled by junior forward Clarence Jackson and junior post Ryan Rossister.

Siena is an experienced team full of upperclassmen, and they’re talented. Four of the five starters average double digits, while lead guard Ronald Moore averages 7 points per game and an astounding 8 assists to just 2 turnovers.

Additionally, Saints are as athletic as most teams in America, but more importantly, their experience means that they are extremely comfortable in their own skin. They know their roles and play good team basketball as a result.

Siena also plays multiple defenses well, from traditional 2-3 zone, to 1-3-1 three quarter court trap, to man to man. They can confuse a young backcourt even if it’s as talented as UK’s.

Texas A&M Aggies

If I’m Kentucky, I wouldn’t want any part of the 5 seeded Aggies in a sweet sixteen matchup. Mark Turgeon is a master defensive gameplanner and he’d have a week to prepare and devise a defensive Rubik’s Cube for young Wall and Bledsoe to toil against.

The Aggies also have a pretty experienced team overall, led by an athletic guard in Donald Sloan who can bother Wall on the perimeter. Inside, Texas A&M isn’t afraid to play physical and they’re quite adept at frustrating opposing bigs.

If I’m a Kentucky fan, I want to face teams that are willing to get into shootouts with a propensity to give up easy offense. The last thing I want is for my young team to have to make multiple decisions to find the correct player in the correct spot in a halfcourt possession game. Eighteen and nineteen year old kids getting ready to receive 50 million dollar bank wires are quirky like that.

After all patience is a virtue and it doesn’t seem virtue has ever been a hallmark of the Calipari organization.

Up next, the Duke Blue Devils

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13 Responses

  1. Nice comeback by Siena last night. Senior-laden team with a good coach and some elite talent.

    Maybe Turgeon could call BCG to help gameplan against the Wildcats. Ha ha ha ha!

    For all the attention John Wall gets — and he’s worth of every second — I like watching Bledsoe just as much.

    Here’s a random question: Let’s say if Cousins and Wall were, say, found to be ineligible because of certain admissions oversights by KU’s registrar, would that affect their seeding in the tourney? Thanks I’ll hang up and listen.

  2. I’m sure it would. But I doubt anything comes out or happens to Kentucky until the tournament is over.

    I’d be more worried about Cousins and Wall playing like they have one foot in the Association than anything happening to UK before the tournament.

  3. I naturally have to throw my two cents in here. First, I’m pissed that it won’t be Kentucky in the Houston regional. For that, I smite the Men of Orange and hope they become the first #1 seed to lose to a #16. But I digress.

    Kentucky is just oozing with talent. If they were an NBA team, they’d be the Zombie Sonics. Which is to say, the Zombie Sonics aren’t going to win the championship this year, but I’d rather watch them over any other team (other than the Fightin’ LeBrons). Unfortunately, this is college, and Cal is going to lose his top 3 (maybe 4, if Bledsoe declares) options to the Association next year. Oh well, enjoy it while it lasts.

    I’ll be picking them to win the championship in my brackets, because I’m a homer like that. But I don’t think it’s gonna happen.

    Earlier in the year, the key to slowing down Kentucky was to get rid of John Wall, but with Cousins’ emergence and Patterson’s resurgence, that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Plus, I’m feeling a lot more confident in Bledsoe’s ability to run the 1. But not that confident. Wall plays out of control and will stupidly turn the ball over 5 times a game. He also will make 5 highlight reel plays and “little” plays that go unnoticed by the box score. Bledsoe makes less bone-headed decisions with the ball but simply doesn’t have that explosiveness.

    The key to beating Kentucky is letting their big 3 get what they want but limiting the others. In their loss to Tennessee, Miller went 3-9 and Bledsoe 3-10. Their bench combined for 5 points. In their loss to USC, the non big-3 combined for 11 total points. In their win over Florida, Miller and Dodson combined for 24; in their win over USC, Liggins stepped up with a 7/2/2 and Orton had a 6/5/2 in limited minutes.

    Their other problem is that if Miller and Dodson are off, there’s no wing play and no outside threat. Wall and Bledsoe shoot credibly enough, but they simply aren’t the outside threat that, say, Abrams and Augustin presented. To start, I’d clog the middle whenever Cousins touches the ball and (attempt to) stop any dribble penetration by Wall. Let Patterson take the 15-footer (which he’s become very good at) or Wall/Bledsoe shoot the 3. I’d type more but am 4 minutes from a 2 hour meeting.

  4. Wow. That is fantastic. Love to see the Aggie Forehead take on Cousins.

  5. These are great.

  6. [...] March To March — Blog — One Seed Weaknesses Part III: Kentucky Wildcats [...]

  7. longclaws said:

    March 10th, 2010 at 8:22 am

    Trust me, Vasherized, Sandy Bell, the compliance officer at UK is one of the best in the business. Nothing was overlooked in Wall and Couisins’ admission process.

    Good reach though.

  8. raoulduke said:

    March 10th, 2010 at 9:44 am

    One of the ‘best in the business’. I see what you did there.

    Either way, I don’t care. Looking forward to watching these teams get going.

    Great stuff Mr. Berger.

  9. [...] one’s easy. Take everything I wrote about in the Kentucky Strength section and reverse it. The Blue Devils aren’t overly athletic and they aren’t particulary [...]

  10. Yeah I think if they run into A&M or Wisconsin or Georgetown in the Sweet 16 they will go down. I honestly think they will be exposed once they get into big time games. There is no question they have crazy talent, but the fact that they are playing in the SEC will hurt them.

    I honestly think that you can get into cousins’ head they are way to young and way to hot headed.. How they will be able to run 6 straight against the best of the best will be the question. I can’t help but think they will be the 1st 1 seed to go down.

  11. [...] Kentucky [...]

  12. [...] the extent the Kentucky guards recognize the Cousin’s advantage they’ll be a really tough [...]

  13. [...] Kentucky Wildcats are the most talented team in the country. The West Virginia Mountaineers are the [...]

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