The hooting and hollering that took place in Durham earlier this month wasn’t audible in Chapel Hill. Even Coach K and his brood are bound by the laws of physics. But make no mistake, when the Duke Blue Devils returned to campus met by a hero’s welcome, the reverberation was not only felt up and down Tobacco Road, but throughout the entire ACC.
2009 was supposed to be a stepping stone year for a realistic championship run in 2010 by the Dukies. Instead, Coach K went mad scientist and hit the fast forward button much to the chagrin of the Atlanta Coast Conference and rival North Carolina.
The Tar Heels know the battle for conference supremacy doesn’t get any easier because the Blue Devils aren’t reloading. They’re stockpiling.
So what does North Carolina need to do to challenge a Duke juggernaut that’s suddenly flipped the switch from competing for championships to competing for dynasties?
The answers to the following five questions will go a long way in determining if there’s light at the end of the tunnel for the Tar Heels. And whether or not that light is a Blue Devil train engineered by the game’s best coach pulling along the game’s best players.
1) Can Harrison Barnes be UNC’s leading man?
Gone are bellcows Deon Thompson and Ed Davis, who’s taking his southpaw skills to the NBA. Enter arguably college basketball’s best incoming freshman, 6’8″ silky smooth wing Harrison Barnes. Barnes can get his shot against virtually any player whenever he wants.
The problem for North Carolina is that they need Harrison Barnes to be Harrison Ford. In other words, the Tar Heels need Barnes to carry the proverbial water night in and night out.
But can he? Our guess is yes, he can.
Barnes is a terrific shooter, scorer, and finisher but he has a tendency to defer a bit too much for a super star and at Carolina he’ll be asked to be THE guy. If he can channel his inner Carmelo Anthony and be as greedy as Goldman Sachs, the Tar Heels can compete with Duke.
2) Will Jon Henson eat something?
At 6’10″ 190 pounds soaking wet, Henson is the envy of waify runway models and Iggy Pop look-a-likes. It’s an under statement to say he needs to get bigger and stronger, because he’ll be asked to play more than 15 minutes per game he played last season. Henson will probably need to play twice as much in 2010-2011.
More eating, less cardio. Now I envy you, Jon.
3) Can the Law firm of Zeller, Wear, and Wear rebound?
Two choices for the three headed monster here. Get John Edwards to help sue the ACC for rebounds. Or box someone out.
Since one post spot is reserved for the aforementioned super talented forward Jon Henson, who happens to be built like a rake, the boarding muscle has to come from a combination of the three players above.
Tyler Zeller needs to stay healthy and tap into his huge reservoir of potential, while the Wear twins try to develop their skills at faster pace than the Plumlee brothers. The dynamic between the two sets of brothers strikes me as a peculiar Tobacco Road competition that is reminiscent of a 3-legged man race at company picnics.
4) Who’s going to shoot the ball?
Harrison Barnes is a capable perimeter scorer, but the Tar Heels need to find two more automatics beyond the arc or they risk being zoned to death by the ACC or pack-lined to death when facing Virginia.
Will Graves is terrific from distance, but his inability to handle puts a lot of pressure on Drew and Barnes to handle the rock in that alignment.
It would be nice if Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland suddenly found religion or at least a gym in the off-season to hoist a thousand jumpers a day. Obsessive Compulsive Disorder worked for Chris Jackson but I don’t take the Duke/UNC rivalry seriously enough to wish Tourrettes on anyone.
5) Will Roy Williams take a page out of Coach K’s book and adjust his style to fit his personnel?
Coach K’s experiment with softened wing pressure on defense and a Bob Knight-styled motion offense last season was a mild success, no? Roy Williams trying to fast-break like he had Paul Pierce, Ty Lawson, Marvin Williams, and Sean Mays? Not so much.
Coach Williams needs to realize that he doesn’t have the talent up and down the roster, nor the depth to win games by trading good shots and defense for increased pace and possessions. This type of coaching hubris landed his team in the NIT last season and it’ll happen again this season if he’s not willing to adjust.
The Tar Heels don’t have the hosses inside to rebound and run like Williams’ Kansas and UNC teams of the past. They need to defend, play sound positionally on the glass, and then find good shots on the other end for Barnes, Strickland, and Henson.
Do this and the Heels will be able to compete in every game they play including the one played in Durham.
Fail to do this and that hooting and hollering you hear in up the road Carolina fan will be drowned out by a train coming down the tracks and a chorus of boos from the Powder Blue faithful.
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jc25 said:
April 30th, 2010 at 9:28 am
My guess is Harrison Barnes is the Freshman POY. He’ll have competition from Sullinger, Selby and Knight, but I like Barnes to take it, especially on a team desperate for star power.
Unfortunately, Roy’s biggest problem is he has no point guard. Larry Drew was, how do I put it, the suck. See recent history: after winning the title with Felton, he drops in the round of 32 having to rely on Bobby Frasor and Quinton Thomas. Same case scenario with Ty Lawson.
If Drew can take a mild step up to competent point guard, they’ll stay competitive in the ACC. If he can take the leap (along with some contributions from the other ex-diaper dandies), then we’ll start seeing some noise in the Duke v. UNC clashes again.
April 30th, 2010 at 9:58 am
jc25, great points. I’m shocked UNC didn’t sell their souls for a point guard this season. It’s painfully obvious Drew and to a certain extent Strickland aren’t difference makers as lead guards.
Stanley Steamer said:
April 30th, 2010 at 11:34 am
Agreed
Stanley Steamer said:
April 30th, 2010 at 11:34 am
Very much so.
Spills said:
April 30th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
UNC has the potential to be anywhere from a 3-8 seed in the NCAA tournament next year.
Given Roy Williams’ approach, UNC’s fortunes really turn on the play of Drew II. If you read the Tar Heel message boards, Kendall Marshall will be the starter at PG at the end of the season once he “learns the system.” I could be wrong, but I don’t think Marshall will push Drew from the starting line up. Lawson split time fairly evenly with Bobby Frasor in Lawson’s freshman year even though Lawson was clearly superior. I don’t see freshman Marshall displacing Junior Drew, unless he were the second coming of Jason Kidd, which he isn’t.
If Drew does not dramatically improve his jump shot and his passing skills, I think UNC could be in for one of those frustrating seasons where the team underperforms the typically outsized expectations of their fanbase.
At this time last year, UNC fans were fairly positive that Henson was going to school Singler. We saw how that turned out. Roy initially played Henson at the 3, and by mid-season it became evident that Henson did not work as a 3. Once injuries started decimating the Tar Heel front line, Henson moved to the 4, where he found a niche. From what I saw, Henson has the potential to be a good shot blocker/help side defender, serviceable rebounder, and scorer of the put back, lay up, and alley oop variety. I haven’t seen him consistently hit anything from outside 8 feet.
I thought Zeller was going to be a force, but injuries have obviously set him back. I could see him having a bigger impact than Henson because I think he is a better rebounder and scorer than Henson. I think if Zeller’s junior season is anything like his first two years, UNC could struggle to make the NCAA’s.
If I remember correctly, David Wear sustained a serious hip injury, and there are questions whether he will play next year. If he is not available, UNC will be thin in the front court (insert Henson joke here).
Barnes will be the go-to guy on offense, and I don’t think he will have a problem assuming that role. It will be interesting to see how he co-exists with Henson. Both Barnes and Henson have their eyes on the NBA and would probably prefer to get there sooner rather than later. The offense *should* run through Barnes, but I could see Henson having a differing opinion.
On paper, UNC has a ton of talent at shooting guard. Like Henson, Dexter Strickland never performed to the level that many Tar Heel fans expected when he started the season. If Strickland develops a consistent jump shot, he will probably be the starter. I haven’t seen enough of Reggie Bullock to comment on whether he will get some burn next year. If he lives up the McDonald’s AA hype, he could split time with Strickland.
UNC has a great freshman class coming in, but they are only upgrading at one position, small forward (Barnes for Ginyard). They can’t replace Davis and Thompson. Even an improved Henson and Zeller will not be better than 2009-2010 Davis and Thompson. For UNC to be a Top-10 team, Drew would need to develop into an above-average point guard, Strickland and/or Bullock would need to give them consistent outside shooting, and Barnes needs to have a Hansbrough-like freshman season.
SkyMonkeyHorn said:
April 30th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
Kendall Marshall is a pure pass first PG that is better then Drew in pushing the ball and delivering the pass at the right time to the right player. This kid is a great passer period. Above average quickness, will pressure the ball well, defends his position well. Drives very well and has decent form on his J needs work in that area. Could be in the lineup playing starter minutes by the first 10-11 games unless Drew gets all around better. Marshall does not turn the ball over and can run a half court offense ,excellent handle for a young kid.
Bullock is a great addition to UNC at the 2-3 hole better suited for the SG. Body ready for the NBA and he is a smart player with a nice stroke from beyond the arc, uses a good ball fake and drives well left and right, mid range J needs work but can explode to the basket with a blazing first step and finish in traffic and absorbing hits. Decent passer and handles well with a quick crossover. Plays taller then he is ,rebounds well but his defense is still a work in progress.
April 30th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
great stuff spills and sky. unc has an uphill climb it seems.
Spills said:
April 30th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Sky Monkey Horn,
I think you summed up Marshall just right. I think your description could equally apply to high school Greg Paulus. People forget that Paulus was an elite point guard coming out of high school and had a fairly good showing in the McDonald’s AA game. I haven’t watched enough of Marshall’s game to be comfortable coming to any definitive conclusions about his game now or his potential in the future. From what I’ve seen, he strikes me as someone who achieved at a high level at an early age but has edged close to his ceiling. When he committed to UNC, I think he was one of the top two or three point guard prospects in the country. Now, I would say he is the 3rd best point guard prospect entering the ACC next season. (Irving at Duke and Harrow at NC State being my top 2.)
Marshall’s talents seem best suited for a half court game, which is not Roy Williams’ style. I think that Drew has much better speed, but his passing and decision making are poor. Marshall would be an upgrade in the half court. I’m just not sold that he would be well-suited for Williams’ up tempo style of play. I am biased against UNC, so I tend to see their glass as half-empty, though.
jc25 said:
May 2nd, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Good stuff, Spills and Sky. Thanks for the read. I tend to side with Spills…I think Drew would have to completely suck before Roy turns the job over to Marshall. And having a freshman run your offense isn’t exactly the best predictor of final four success.
SkyMonkeyHorn said:
May 2nd, 2010 at 8:12 pm
Marshall ran with Boo Williams if I am not mistaken and all that team did was push and push the ball . I do agree that Marshall runs a better half court game but he does not suck at pushing the ball up the court.
The question I ask is do you think that Drew can take UNC to the top of the ACC ,and can he then take the team deep into the dance? I do not think so. Just IMO.
Marshall may have topped out but I am thinking that he still has some growth before he hits his glass ceiling. His BB IQ is high and will just get better.
Marshall is a better PG then Drew is at this time. Drew is faster down the court but then what does he do ? Makes bad decisions or bad passes.
Irving is a step higer then Harrow but I think that Marshall is just as good as Harrow and closer to Irving then Harrow. But we will see in a few months how it will shake out.
We might even see Drew playing with Marshall at times this season.
Spills said:
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:25 am
Sky,
I agree with your observations. I think Marshall is a better passer and decision maker than Drew. I think Drew has more straight line speed than Marshall. I assume that Drew will improve during the offseason, though I don’t know if he can meaningfully improve his passing and decision making. To answer your question, I don’t think Drew can lead UNC to the top of the ACC next year, unless his game undergoes a radical transformation (that is, he develops a consistent outside shot, elevates his assist to turnover ratio above 2.5:1, and develops into a serviceable defender). We can’t rule this out, but I think it is unlikely. It’s not like he is learning a new position or adjusting to the college game. If the light has not turned on, it may be time to change the light bulb.
Marshall may end up starting early on because he’s an upgrade over Drew. One thing to consider. Rumors floated around that Drew was considering transferring. Roy Williams is very canny. If he thought Drew couldn’t hack it, he probably would have encouraged him to leave. As it happened, Drew announced that he was returning for his junior year — confirming that a transfer must have been seriously considered and that Roy must have talked him out of it. Unless Marshall is head and shoulders above Drew, I think Drew gets the nod, if for no other reason than Roy has cast his lot with Drew or Roy perceives that letting Marshall start will cause Drew to sulk and become a distraction.
It boils down to speed and experience v. passing and playmaking. I would not be shocked if you saw a message board civil war being waged at Inside Carolina not unlike soph Frasor v. freshman Lawson.
SkyMonkeyHorn said:
May 4th, 2010 at 8:20 am
I am not a UNC lean but I always think that the glass is FULL and can get larger if the ability is there. Roy is a whale of a coach and I have a deep respect for him as a coach. I would like to hear a discussion of Coach Knight (No matter what anyone thinks of him) and Roy concerning their style of basketball. The in and outs of attacking and defending their teams, would make for an intertaining night.
Spills very good insight and a quality approach to your post, I hope to continue this discussion here on a frequent basis.
Berger is first class and knows his hoops, no one better IMO. Not so much with his Scotch.
Spills said:
May 4th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Sky,
Agreed re: Kevin. I lurk in a lot of places, but Kevin has drawn me out of hiding. Dude name checked Joey Beard. Now, if he could somehow drop a reference to Al McGuire referring to Marty Nessley as “The Puma,” I’d plotz.
SkyMonkeyHorn said:
May 5th, 2010 at 7:14 am
Spills,
Are you the real “Donnie Brasco” ? I hope your not crapping your pants…..
Spills said:
May 6th, 2010 at 7:12 am
The Wears are supposedly transferring. I have already seen talk from the Tar Heel faithful that this actually works out well for them because Roy can recruit some upgrades. While I wouldn’t discount Roy’s ability to recruit, I question whether he could jump in at this stage with someone like T. Jones.
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